AIDScience Vol. 2, No. 24, December 2002

Existing AIDS vaccine demand and related studies
 in the public domain*


Bishai, D. et al. Algorithms for the Purchase of an AIDS Vaccine
Working Paper #2321 (2000) from the World Bank Health and Population, Fertility and HIV/AIDS Working Group available at:
Two mathematical models of decision-making on purchase of hypothetical vaccine: one employing health sector priorities (minimizing government health spending on HIV/AIDS); and one based on societal priorities (minimizing impact of HIV/AIDS on health spending and GDP

Bishai, D. et al. Modeling the Economic Benefits of an AIDS Vaccine
Vaccine 20:526;2001
Global demand estimates based on cost-benefit analyses

Esparza J. et al. Global and Regional Estimates of Need and Probable Uptake for HIV/AIDS Preventive Vaccines..Vaccine 2002 (in press)
Regional experts indicate likely policies for use, which are translated into aggregated public health needs for vaccine. Estimates made for vaccines of low and high efficacy

Tangcharoensathien, V. et al. The Potential Demand for an AIDS Vaccine in Thailand, Health Policy 57:111;2001
Demand estimates based on targeted delivery to 8 risk groups, calculating cost/savings per HIV infection averted


Suraratdecha, C. et al. The Demand for an HIV/AIDS Vaccine: Does Risk Matter? PowerPoint Presentation from 14th International AIDS Conference, Barcelona 2002 available at:

Estimates of individual (high risk groups and general population) willingness to pay for vaccines with 50 or 95 percent efficacy

Whittington, et al. Private Demand for an HIV/AIDS Vaccine: Evidence from Guadelejara, Mexico Vaccine 20:2585;2002
Private demand estimates based on willingness of individuals to pay for AIDS vaccines


Bogard, E. et al. The Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine on a Population of Intravenous Drug Users in Bangkok, Thailand: A Dynamic Model
Models impact (on 40 year prevalence rates) of 30, 75, and 90 percent efficacious vaccines in a cohort of Thai IV drug-users

Longini, I., et al. Model-based Estimation of Vaccine Effect from Community Vaccine Trials. Stat Med 21:481;2002
Estimates of epidemiological and economic impact of intervention based on a “Thailand-like” situation

Stover, J., et al. The Epidemiological Impact of an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries (2002) Working Paper #281 from the World Bank Development Research Group available at:

Three models for impact of partially-effective vaccines based on epidemiological data from rural Zimbabwe, Kampala, Uganda, and Bangkok, Thailand


Miller, M. et al. A Model to Estimate the Probability of Hepatitis B- and Haemophilis influenzae type b-vaccine Uptake into National Vaccination Programs.
18: 2223;2000
Analysis of determining factors in countries’ decision to include two new vaccines in existing childhood immunization programs

Watts, C. et al. The Public Health Impact of Microbicides: Model Projections PowerPoint presentation (and other documents and tools related to prevention, treatment and microbicide impact) available at:
Model of impact of partially effective microbicides

*Compiled by Tom Nassim (IAVI consultant), Yvette Madrid (IAVI consultant) and Saul Walker (European Policy Coordinator, IAVI).

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